AwardsWatch - FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR
The race for Best Actor is heating up, with a few strong contenders and some surprising snubs. While Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are leading the pack, there are some intriguing dark horses in the mix.
The Top Contenders
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) are the clear frontrunners, with Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins under their belts. However, DiCaprio's chances might be slightly more tenuous due to the strong female co-star in his film, which could give other contenders an edge.
Michael B. Jordan, who has been gaining momentum, is also in the running with his film Sinners. While he might not be the favorite, he's likely to secure a nomination, especially if his film performs well.
The Dark Horses
Wagner Moura, who missed the SAG Awards, is still in the running with his Best Actor award from Cannes and a Golden Globe for drama actor. His film, The Secret Agent, is on the rise, and his performance is highly regarded. However, his lack of recognition at the SAG and BAFTA longlist is a concern, but it's not unprecedented.
Ethan Hawke, Joel Edgerton, and Jesse Plemons are also in the running for the last spot. Each has a decent chance, but Hawke's strong showing in precursors makes him a top contender. Edgerton's film, Train Dreams, received a PGA nomination, and Plemons has a history of strong performances.
The LGBTQ+ Factor
The acting lineup could be groundbreaking if Hawke doesn't make the cut, as it would be the first time since 2016 that no LGBTQ+ character, real or fictional, is featured in the acting categories. This adds an extra layer of complexity to the race.
The Numbers Game
Since 2010, 17 actors who hit all six precursors were nominated for Oscars (100%). Plemons and Hawke have strong track records, with 11 and 7 nominations respectively. However, Edgerton's lack of recognition in precursors is a red flag.
The Final Predictions
- Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme (A24)
- Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
- Michael B. Jordan - Sinners (Warner Bros)
- Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent (NEON)
- Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Jesse Plemons - Bugonia (Focus Features)
- Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams (Netflix)
These predictions are subject to change, and the Academy's choices will be revealed on Oscar morning. Stay tuned for more updates!
