Bold claim: Auckland and Wellington remain the furthest from their peaks, and a leading property investor argues one city is currently more undervalued than the other. That’s the setup as Cotality’s latest figures roll in, showing a marginal 0.1% nationwide uptick in New Zealand property values for November. The national median now sits at $806,551—about 17.4% below the early-2022 peak and merely 1.1% above the trough recorded in June 2023.
But the national snapshot masks a patchwork reality.
Auckland sits 22.9% below its peak, with a 2.2% year-on-year drop and a 0.2% dip in the latest month. Hamilton is down 11.4% from its peak but up 0.3% year-on-year and 0.7% for the month. Tauranga is 15.2% below its peak and up 1.2% year-on-year. Wellington, by contrast, sits 25.1% below its peak, down 1.8% over the year but nudging up 0.1% for November. Christchurch is only 3.8% below its peak and has risen 2.6% over the past year, while Dunedin is down 10.8% from its peak and up 0.2% year-on-year.
Kelvin Davidson, Cotality’s chief property economist, notes that values across the country fluctuated from May to August as households and firms exercised caution. September and October showed a touch more life, but November slipped a tad. The fall in mortgage rates lately could signal more upward movement in values as 2026 approaches, especially since affordability measures have inched closer to their long-term averages. Still, November’s data hints that the lift-off is taking longer than expected.
Davidson also pointed out that the inventory of homes for sale remains higher than typical for the time of year. This keeps buyers’ negotiating power intact, while the broader economy shows mixed signals: unemployment remains a concern and job growth hasn’t fully accelerated. On balance, the foundation for value growth next year appears to be forming, but the market is essentially in a holding pattern for now.
Interestingly, Davidson suggests that removing Auckland from the national figures would have shown value increases in recent months. He describes the national picture as an Auckland story: Auckland’s flat performance drags the whole country’s median down. November marks the eighth consecutive month of price declines in Auckland, following a modest 1.6% gain in the seven months to March this year. In short, Tāmaki Makaurau continues to lag behind most other regions, with buyer caution and plentiful listings weighing on the market.
Economic confidence in Auckland is slow to lift. The city is more service-based, so it lacks the boost from sectors like farming and agriculture that can buoy other markets. On the supply side, a sizable stream of townhouses is entering the Auckland market, keeping listings weighted toward buyers. All of this helps explain the current lag and a certain malaise in Auckland’s housing sector. Will a rebound arrive? It likely will, given Auckland’s status as the country’s largest economy and major job engine, but supply-demand dynamics will continue to shape the pace.
Davidson also notes Christchurch’s history of rising supply has helped keep a lid on price growth and affordability, a trend now echoed in Auckland.
Among other major centers, most have posted stronger gains, with Invercargill and the next tier of towns and cities also showing growth.
Steve Goodey, a property investment coach, sees Auckland as potentially undervalued. He points to solid rental yields and falling interest rates increasing purchasing capacity. He acknowledges strong upward pressure on certain properties, noting well-presented homes tend to move quickly, even if he’s not ready to label it FOMO.
Wellington, however, remains distinctly more depressed. The market is crowded with listings, rents have fallen (though the rate of decline is easing), and the city faces numerous unresolved issues that create opportunity yet leave buyers who bought in 2021 potentially overpaying and stuck with those properties. Goodey describes Wellington as a buyer’s and renter’s market, not overdeveloped but underserved and underaddressed—the kind of environment that attracts buyers and investors looking for value in a distressed backdrop.
Investors have begun returning to Wellington, signaling some renewed interest despite the broader softness in the capital.
Source: RNZ, discussing the latest Cotality data on New Zealand housing values.
